Thursday, January 2, 2014

PART 10: US Middle Class International Ranking and Generational Mobility Comparison (8/17/13)



There is a growing concern by US policy makers that the US middle class has fallen behind the rest of the world in key areas such as education, health and medical, and related basic needs that serve to support its people. Not only has the US has continued to trend behind other developed nations, but the US is falling behind in several basic expectations by Americans. 

What uses to pass as basic elements to American freedom are no longer what they seem. America has fallen behind many other developing or developed countries in a number of these such as property rights, a free market economy freedom of the press, and even competitiveness.

Americans standing in education has fallen very low with very high rates of high school and college drop-outs.  No country has so much debt for college loans, not to mention consumer loans.

Of all the developed countries that belong to OCED, the US ranks at the bottom for providing health care at 26.4% of its people. The remainder provides health care to 95% or more of their population. The US is also dead last of these 31 countries in infant mortality. The US is nearly last of these 31 in early childhood education and day care; half of U.S. children receive no early child hood education

On the other hand, the US leads the world in a number of categories that have an impact on the middle class economy: number of companies in the Fortune 500, defense spending, those seeking asylum, oil consumption and the number of nuclear generators, incarnation including rates, populations and the expense of housing them.

In most emerging economies children almost invariably earn more than their parents. Even in America, despite slow growth and widening income gaps, most people do better than the generation above them: a recent study by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that 84% of adult Americans had higher real incomes than their parents. However, when the US middle class is compared to other societies mobility based on passing of wealth or poverty to the next generation, the US falls somewhat in the middle of mobility where America is lower than most of Europe.

In other words, since the creation of a single market economy, Europeans meet less resistance than Americans increasing earnings and “moving up the ladder.”   At the beginning of the 20th century Europe one’s economic class was pretty much fixed at birth but over the next 80+ years, new factors such as access to education came into play. In the US we are seeing the reverse, where family assets can safely passed on without an inheritance tax.

Additionally, the same Pew report showed that social mobility is also lower in the US than any time in the last 30 years. Fully 37% of 18- to 29-year-olds are unemployed or out of the workforce.  This tracks with an earlier 2008 World Bank report that that among the poorest in the US intergeneration immobility is very low. “Children born to parents in the lowest decile are likely to remain in the poorest 50 percent, and half of them will stay among the poorest 30 percent.”

To understand just how important mobility is in today’s society imagine that all the have not’s are standing at just outside a gated community where the have’s live.  The haves, perhaps the top one percentile, control for the most part the economy and the politics of the government. By doing, so they can shut out those who aim for a spot in the gated community by controlling and making the rules for those less fortunate.   Consequently, as is being seen in the US, the much more powerful 1% is controlling the opportunities of the rest of its society particularly those of middle and lower income for better paying jobs, access to affordable housing, health care and education. In turn, this makes it even more difficult to “get ahead,” an important feature of being middle class in America 30-40 years ago. 

If that is not enough, the attitude of many, if not most of those in the one percentile is to firmly believe that those had plenty of opportunities and capability to become rich and for those who did not make it, those who lost their jobs and their homes in the great recession of 2007-2009, or the dot.com bust before that, well it was their own fault.  

To view details and trends of the US middle class rankings and intergenerational mobility click on the downloadable PDF file below.

The Dots…How the US Compares to Other Developed Nations
1.      US rank in what the US middle class expect as basic rights and expectations, several international organizations show the US failing in a number of categories but number one in asylum seeking:
·        Freedom of the Press- 2012 the US ranked 47th of 179 countries behind such countries as Estonia, the Czech Republic and Poland which were behind the Iron Curtin in the 1980’s. In 2002 the US was 17th ranked. However, Freedom House ranks the US second behind Estonia as the highest internet freedom score.
·        Property Rights (property and intellectual) – The US ranked 18th of 133 countries in the 2012 International Property Rights Report. Not only are the Scandinavian countries ranked well ahead but also Singapore and Hong Kong.
·        Free Market Economy – the US ranked 5th in Globscan’s latest survey where the responder was asked agreed "strongly" or "somewhat" that the free market was the best system for the world's future.  The US response was less than 60% down from 80% in a similar poll 10 years ago. Germany, Brazil and China lead by nearly 70%.
·        Global Competitiveness – the World Economic Forum ranked the US 5th in its 2011 report in Global Competitiveness. For 2012 the US fell to 7th of 144 countries ranked in this annual survey.  Singapore was second while the other 5 positions were taken by European countries.
·        Corruption – the US ranked 24th in the current Transparency International Index of 182 countries in their survey. 10 years ago the US was 16th.
·        Global Innovation -  the US ranked 10th in global innovation in the 2012 WIPO Index. For the second year running, Switzerland, Sweden, and Singapore lead in overall innovation performance.   
·        Pro-family and family support- In comparing the US with other countries, Center for the Next Generation (pgs 10-11) found:
§  In general, large European countries have lower poverty rates than those of the United States, thanks to more generous social and pro-family policies including paid maternity and paternity leave, paid child care and other government directed cash payments, and tax breaks for families with children. European students on average score higher on math, science, and reading tests than their American peers.
§  The United Kingdom’s universal free preschool, combined with one of the most innovative family support models in the world, have led to integrated family services and early intervention in community based “children’s centers.” Begun in the late 1990s, studies show these investments in early childhood and pro-family services have improved child social behavior, boosted learning skills, and promoted home settings more conducive to learning.
·        Intergeneration Mobility – the US ranked 8th in this category Center for Economic Performance, London study of European and North American countries.     
·        Seeking Asylum – the US ranks 1st in this category in 2010 of 44 nations that accept asylum seekers at 15.5%, of the top 10 nationalities seeking asylum none were from Latin America. (http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/03/asylum-seekers)
·        Gap between richest and poorest regions the US ranks second behind UK but Italians has the smallest gap between its regions.  
2.      In Education the US Department of Education review of OECD statistics reveal that:
·        OECD’s rankings have U.S. students in 14th place in reading literacy among OECD nations in reading literacy. 15-year-old American students were average performers showing no improvement in reading since 2000.
·        In mathematics, U.S. 15-year-olds are below-average performers among OECD nations—ranked 25th, outperforming their peers in math in only five OECD countries.
·        In science US students are in 17th place in 2009 OECD rankings. 
·        Overall, in one generation, the United States has fallen from 1st place to 9th place in the proportion of young people with college degrees
·        By 2009, 17 percent of German students were competent at advanced math, compared with just 10 percent of U.S. students. The US is ranked 27th in math.
·        Of 25 OECD countries in 2006, the US ranks 13th, at 35%, in the percentage of college graduates to population.   Ranking higher is Poland at 47.3%. (http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/tertiary-education-graduation-rates_20755120-table1)
3.      According to the Center for the Next Generation  report “The Competition that Really Matters” published August 2012 (pgs 5-6) finds:
·        The United States has the most educated 60-year-olds in the world but not the most educated 30-year-olds, 20-year-olds or 10-year-olds.
·        More than half of U.S. post-secondary students drop out without receiving a degree.
4.      In matters of health and medical services the US does not rank among the top:
·        Of the 34 members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the US:
§  Ranks at the bottom with only 26.4% health care coverage for its 310 million citizens. 30 other OECD countries provide at least 95% coverage.   
§  2nd in “Better Life” index behind Australia. The US excels most in money and jobs, Switzerland in health and education. OECD adjusted the current index for income equality with the US scoring near the bottom. 
·        More than a quarter of U.S. children have a chronic health condition, such as obesity or asthma, threatening their capacity to learn according to Center for the Next Generation.
·        In providing social and nutrition services
·        Of the 34 members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the US:
§  More than 22 percent of U.S. children lived in poverty in 2010, up from about 17 percent in 2007.
§  Only 11 percent of workers have paid family leave, making it increasingly difficult for dual-earner and single-family households to properly care for children.
§  In 2011 the US ranked as one of the most impoverished 4th from the bottom at 17.4% of 34 OECD countries, followed by Chile, Israel and Mexico (see chart below).
§  Ranks 30th in early childhood education and day care, half of U.S. children receive no early child hood education, and there is no national strategy to increase enrollment. Poor country such as Romania does better with a 75% enrollment or Mexico with 82%. (Source: OECD Education database; Canada, National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (2006); Korea: Korean Institute of Childcare and Education; Eurostat (2008) for non-OECD countries.)
·        The US is ranked #1, overall in the current Economist Intelligence Unit global food security index particularly in the area of affordability.
·        However, the US was #4 in food availability behind Denmark, Norway and France
·        The Us ranked #3 in food quality and safety behind Israel and France

5.      Social Mobility: A Pew Research 2010 survey of the Millennials (born after 1980) generation finds that they are not doing nearly as well as their parents:
·        Today, fully 37% of 18- to 29-year-olds are unemployed or out of the workforce, the highest share among this age group in more than three decades. Research shows that young people who graduate from college in a bad economy typically suffer long-term consequences -- with effects on their careers and earnings that linger as long as 15 years
·        A significant share (one-in-eight) of adult Millennials (ages 22 and older) is living with their parent due to the recession.
·        One-in-five (21%) adults of those are married now, half the share of their parents' generation at the same stage of life.
·        About a third (34%) are parents. In 2006, more than a third of 18 to 29 year old women who gave birth were unmarried, far higher than earlier generations.
·        Of 29 OECD countries in 2007, the US suicide rate was 16th lowest at 11.2% per 100,000. Greece and Mexico ranked #1 and 2. 
·        Ranked 4th the 34 OECD members in paying the least amount of total overall taxes in 2009 (http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/taxation/total-tax-revenue_20758510-table2) 
·        In studies conducted by the World Bank[1], noted that “a common measure is the elasticity of son’s to father’s income; the smaller the elasticity, the higher mobility will be, and the less dependent an individual’s earnings on that individual’s background.”
§  The report found that “Mobility in the United States is much lower than in Canada, Finland, Sweden, or the United Kingdom (see also chart 1 from the Economist below). “There is a fairly high intergenerational elasticity in earnings between fathers and sons in the United States.”
§  Further the World Bank researchers reported that among the poorest in the US intergeneration immobility is very low. “Children born to parents in the lowest decile are likely to remain in the poorest 50 percent, and half of them will stay among the poorest 30 percent.”
§  Possible reasons are that “parents from poorer backgrounds face financial constraints early in the lifetime of the child such that they cannot “buy into” neighborhoods with higher-quality schools. And that low wealth generates an intergenerational poverty trap. This justifies paying attention to family background as a key source of inequality of opportunity.”
6.      Global Businesses and Economy
·        According to Fortune magazine 2012 global survey, when ranked by revenue America has almost twice as many companies of the biggest 500 than any other country
§  Ratio of big firms to GDP highlights the places where tax is low and business is easy to do, Luxembourg does best with 34 companies per trillion dollars, followed by Switzerland and Taiwan.
·A comparison by EIU of unemployment rates between pre and post-recession of US and European countries shows that Spain has the highest percent of change, the US 10th.
7.      US Budget revenues, expenditures and deficit
·        The US receives and expends by far the largest amount of any other country but in 2012, based on information compiled from the CIA fact book, US ranks 191st of 262 entities. 
·        In 2010 the US ranks first in spending on defense but second in defense spending as a percent of GDP.
8.      The US incarcerates the largest number of people in the world, more than Russia or China according to several studies.
·        The incarceration rate in the US is four times the world average.
§  The US imprisons the most women in the world.
§  The US has less than 5% of the world’s population but over 23% of the world’s incarcerated people.
§  Some individual US states imprison up to six times as many people as do nations of comparable population. In several states, i.e. Louisiana prisons system has become a growth industry. 
§  The Washington DC Sentencing Project published “Incarcerated Parents and Their Children” report in February 2009, finding that:
a.      In 2007, 1.7 million minor children had a parent in prison, an 82% increase since 1991.
b.      One in 43 American children has a parent in prison, with particularly broad racial/ethnic variation.
c.      One in 15 black children and 1 in 42 Latino children has a parent in prison, compared to 1 in 111 white children.
d.      In 2007, there were 809,800 parents incarcerated in U.S. state and federal prisons, an increase of 79% since 1991.
e.      In 2007, half (52%) of all incarcerated men and women were parents.
·        U.S. alone is responsible for holding roughly 15% of all the prisoners in the world. This constitutes over 2% of the entire U.S. population.
§  If the comparison is limited to working aged adult males, of which there are around 100 million, then over 5% of the adult male population is under some form of correctional supervision, alternatively stated, 1 in 20 adult males are under correctional supervision in the U.S.
·        US crime rates do not account for incarceration rates meaning prison growth and higher incarceration rates do not reflect a parallel increase in crime, or a corresponding surge in the nation’s population at large. The US ranks 3rd of 34 OECD countries in assaults but 32 of 34 in murder in OECDs Better Life report of 2012.
·        In 2008 (the peak in US incarnations), according to the US Department of Justice, there were 7,308,200 persons in the US criminal justice correction system, 4,270,917 were on probation, 828,169 on parole, 785,556 in jails, and 1,518,559 in state and federal prisons. In 2012 there are 3,199 on death row and 1,276 executions since 1976.
·        However, in 2007 the US is fifth in executions with 52 behind China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
9.      International Stability
·        The US is the largest weapons suppliers and is one of 5 countries that export 75% of the world’s armaments.
10.   Environment and Energy
·        The US ranks 49th of 132 countries in Yale University ranking of Environmental Performances for 2012 and in fact is categorized as 3rd highest in the “modest” category behind the Republic of Georgia a former member of the USSR. In 2005, the US was ranked 45th. 
·        The US is the largest generator of electricity by nuclear power but 5th in percentage of domestic production.
·        The US continues to show its dependence on oil imports and consumption ranking first for last 30 years and now more recently followed by the European Union




[1] Measuring Inequality of Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank Washington, DC September 2008

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